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A STOCHASTIC FORECAST MODEL FOR JAPAN'S POPULATION
https://doi.org/10.24545/00001006
https://doi.org/10.24545/00001006f7d0c28f-69b1-4e60-ac3c-3fbb5978ca1c
名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
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DP09-06.pdf (237.1 kB)
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Item type | ディスカッションペーパー / Discussion Paper(1) | |||||
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公開日 | 2009-05-01 | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
タイトル | A STOCHASTIC FORECAST MODEL FOR JAPAN'S POPULATION | |||||
言語 | ||||||
言語 | eng | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | stochastic population forecasts | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Japan | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Lee-Carter method | |||||
資源タイプ | ||||||
資源タイプ | technical report | |||||
ID登録 | ||||||
ID登録 (DOI) | 10.24545/00001006 | |||||
ID登録タイプ | JaLC | |||||
著者 |
OKITA, Yoichi
× OKITA, Yoichi× PFAU, Wade D.× GIANG, Long Thanh |
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著者別名 | ||||||
姓名 | 大来, 洋一 | |||||
言語 | ja | |||||
著者所属 | ||||||
政策研究大学院大学 / National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies | ||||||
著者所属 | ||||||
政策研究大学院大学 / National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies | ||||||
著者所属 | ||||||
National Economics University | ||||||
分野 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
内容記述 | 経済学 / Economics | |||||
抄録 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
内容記述 | Obtaining appropriate forecasts for the future population is a vital component of public policy analysis for issues ranging from government budgets to pension systems. Traditionally, demographic forecasters rely on a deterministic approach with various scenarios informed by expert opinion. This approach has been widely criticized, and we apply an alternative stochastic modeling framework that can provide a probability distribution for forecasts of the Japanese population. We find the potential for much greater variability in the future demographic situation for Japan than implied by existing deterministic forecasts. This demands greater flexibility from policy makers when confronting population aging issues. | |||||
内容記述 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
内容記述 | JEL Classification Codes: J1, C53 | |||||
発行年 | ||||||
2009-05 | ||||||
書誌情報 |
en : GRIPS Discussion Papers Report No. DP09-06, 発行日 2009-05-01 |
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出版者 | ||||||
言語 | en | |||||
出版者 | GRIPS Policy Research Center | |||||
関連サイト | ||||||
関連タイプ | isIdenticalTo | |||||
識別子タイプ | URI | |||||
関連識別子 | https://ideas.repec.org/p/ngi/dpaper/09-06.html | |||||
著者版フラグ | ||||||
出版タイプ | AM | |||||
出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa |