2026-03-10T18:26:54Z https://grips.repo.nii.ac.jp/oai

oai:grips.repo.nii.ac.jp:00001287 2023-12-13T05:18:44Z 1:56

Robust Determinants of Growth in Asian Developing Economies: A Bayesian Panel Data Model Averaging Approach LEON-GONZALEZ, Roberto VINAYAGATHASAN, Thanabalasingam Determinants of Growth Bayesian Model Averaging Panel Data Model Inflation Threshold https://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/leon_gonzalez_roberto/ First version: July, 2013 [13-12] http://id.nii.ac.jp/1295/00001123/ This paper investigates the determinants of growth in the Asian developing economies. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in the context of a dynamic panel data growth regression to overcome the uncertainty over the choice of control variables. In addition, we use a Bayesian algorithm to analyze a large number of competing models. Among the explanatory variables, we include a non-linear function of inflation that allows for threshold effects. We use an unbalanced panel data set of 27 Asian developing countries over the period 1980–2009. Our empirical evidence on the determinants of growth suggests that an economy’s investment ratio is positively correlated to growth, whereas government consumption expenditure and terms of trade are negatively correlated. We also find evidence of a nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth, that is, inflation impedes economic growth when it exceeds 5.43% but does not have any significant effect on growth below that level. JEL Classification Codes: O40, E31, C11, C23 GRIPS Policy Research Center 2015-09-28 eng technical report AM https://doi.org/10.24545/00001284 https://grips.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/1287 10.24545/00001284 https://ideas.repec.org/p/ngi/dpaper/15-15.html https://ideas.repec.org/p/ngi/dpaper/15-15.html GRIPS Discussion Papers DP15-15 https://grips.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/1287/files/DP15-15.pdf application/pdf 796.5 kB