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A STOCHASTIC FORECAST MODEL FOR JAPAN'S POPULATION OKITA, Yoichi PFAU, Wade D. GIANG, Long Thanh stochastic population forecasts Japan Lee-Carter method Obtaining appropriate forecasts for the future population is a vital component of public policy analysis for issues ranging from government budgets to pension systems. Traditionally, demographic forecasters rely on a deterministic approach with various scenarios informed by expert opinion. This approach has been widely criticized, and we apply an alternative stochastic modeling framework that can provide a probability　distribution for forecasts of the Japanese population. We find the potential for much greater variability in the future demographic situation for Japan than implied by existing deterministic forecasts. This demands greater flexibility from policy makers when confronting population aging issues. JEL Classification Codes: J1, C53 経済学 / Economics GRIPS Policy Research Center 2009-05-01 eng technical report AM https://doi.org/10.24545/00001006 https://grips.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/1006 10.24545/00001006 https://ideas.repec.org/p/ngi/dpaper/09-06.html https://ideas.repec.org/p/ngi/dpaper/09-06.html GRIPS Discussion Papers DP09-06 https://grips.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/1006/files/DP09-06.pdf application/pdf 237.1 kB