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Estimation Errors in Input-Output Tables and Prediction Errors in Computable General Equilibrium Analysis HOSOE, Nobuhiro Input-output tables computable general equilibrium analysis non-survey method cross-entropy method https://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/hosoe_nobuhiro/ We used 1995-2000-2005 linked input-output (IO) tables for Japan to examine estimation errors of updated IO tables and the resulting prediction errors in computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis developed with updated IO tables. As we usually have no true IO tables for the target year and therefore need to estimate them, we cannot evaluate estimation errors of updated IO tables without comparing the updated ones with true ones. However, using the linked IO tables covering three different years enables us to make this comparison. Our experiments showed that IO tables estimated with more detailed and recent data contained smaller estimation errors and led to smaller quantitative prediction errors in CGE analysis. Despite the quantitative prediction errors, prediction was found to be qualitatively correct. As for the performance of updating techniques of IO tables, a cross-entropy method often outperformed a least-squares method in IO estimation with only aggregate data for the target year but did not necessarily outperform the least-squares method in CGE prediction. JEL Classification Codes: D57, C68, C83 経済学 / Economics GRIPS Policy Research Center 2013-10-07 eng technical report AM https://doi.org/10.24545/00001130 https://grips.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/1130 10.24545/00001130 https://ideas.repec.org/p/ngi/dpaper/13-19.html https://ideas.repec.org/p/ngi/dpaper/13-19.html GRIPS Discussion Papers DP13-19 https://grips.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/1130/files/DP13-19.pdf application/pdf 461.1 kB