2026-03-10T06:21:58Z https://grips.repo.nii.ac.jp/oai

oai:grips.repo.nii.ac.jp:02000197 2025-05-20T02:59:22Z 1:1744338790776

Measuring the Economic Impact of the 2017 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks in the Philippines Using a CGE Model ABAO,Lary Nel B. SY,Deborah Kim HOSOE,Nobuhiro AKUNE,Yuko https://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/hosoe_nobuhiro/ We study the impact and drivers of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in the Philippines in 2017, using a static computable general equilibrium model. Observed data that indicate the market impact of the HPAI are partial; profit and welfare impacts have not been quantified yet. We investigate two major drivers of productivity declines by culling and death of birds and supply disruptions in the poultry sector and consumer avoidance behavior in meat consumption behind the observed market price drop of 7%. We estimate that possible combinations of productivity declines and consumer avoidance were 1–10% and 60–90% and that the HPAI inflicted a welfare loss of 25–56 billion PHP (500 million–1.12 billion USD) and a profit loss of 15–23 billion PHP (295–467 million USD). GRIPS Policy Research Center 2025-05-10 eng technical report https://doi.org/10.24545/0002000197 https://grips.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/2000197 10.24545/0002000197 https://ideas.repec.org/p/ngi/dpaper/25-4.html https://ideas.repec.org/p/ngi/dpaper/25-4.html GRIPS Discussion Papers 25-4 https://grips.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/2000197/files/DP25-4.pdf application/pdf 758.9 KB