{"created":"2023-06-20T15:03:02.578856+00:00","id":1006,"links":{},"metadata":{"_buckets":{"deposit":"b1c31cdb-496c-44f3-a00d-2c397271d3f8"},"_deposit":{"created_by":16,"id":"1006","owners":[16],"pid":{"revision_id":0,"type":"depid","value":"1006"},"status":"published"},"_oai":{"id":"oai:grips.repo.nii.ac.jp:00001006","sets":["1:19"]},"author_link":["6270","6267","6268","6269"],"item_12_description_6":{"attribute_name":"抄録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"Obtaining appropriate forecasts for the future population is a vital component of public policy analysis for issues ranging from government budgets to pension systems. Traditionally, demographic forecasters rely on a deterministic approach with various scenarios informed by expert opinion. This approach has been widely criticized, and we apply an alternative stochastic modeling framework that can provide a probability　distribution for forecasts of the Japanese population. We find the potential for much greater variability in the future demographic situation for Japan than implied by existing deterministic forecasts. This demands greater flexibility from policy makers when confronting population aging issues.","subitem_description_type":"Abstract"}]},"item_12_description_7":{"attribute_name":"内容記述","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"JEL Classification Codes: J1, C53","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_12_description_8":{"attribute_name":"分野","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"経済学 / Economics","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_12_full_name_3":{"attribute_name":"著者別名","attribute_value_mlt":[{"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"6270","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}],"names":[{"name":"大来, 洋一","nameLang":"ja"}]}]},"item_12_identifier_registration":{"attribute_name":"ID登録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_identifier_reg_text":"10.24545/00001006","subitem_identifier_reg_type":"JaLC"}]},"item_12_publisher_12":{"attribute_name":"出版者","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_publisher":"GRIPS Policy Research Center ","subitem_publisher_language":"en"}]},"item_12_relation_16":{"attribute_name":"関連サイト","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_relation_name":[{"subitem_relation_name_text":"https://ideas.repec.org/p/ngi/dpaper/09-06.html"}],"subitem_relation_type":"isIdenticalTo","subitem_relation_type_id":{"subitem_relation_type_id_text":"https://ideas.repec.org/p/ngi/dpaper/09-06.html","subitem_relation_type_select":"URI"}}]},"item_12_text_10":{"attribute_name":"発行年","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"2009-05"}]},"item_12_text_5":{"attribute_name":"著者所属","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"政策研究大学院大学 / National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies"},{"subitem_text_value":"政策研究大学院大学 / National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies"},{"subitem_text_value":"National Economics University"}]},"item_12_version_type_19":{"attribute_name":"著者版フラグ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_version_resource":"http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa","subitem_version_type":"AM"}]},"item_1693541285410":{"attribute_name":"書誌情報","attribute_value_mlt":[{"bibliographicIssueDates":{"bibliographicIssueDate":"2009-05-01","bibliographicIssueDateType":"Issued"},"bibliographicVolumeNumber":"DP09-06","bibliographic_titles":[{"bibliographic_title":"GRIPS Discussion Papers","bibliographic_titleLang":"en"}]}]},"item_creator":{"attribute_name":"著者","attribute_type":"creator","attribute_value_mlt":[{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"OKITA, Yoichi","creatorNameLang":"en"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{}]},{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"PFAU, Wade D.","creatorNameLang":"en"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{}]},{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"GIANG, Long Thanh","creatorNameLang":"en"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{}]}]},"item_files":{"attribute_name":"ファイル情報","attribute_type":"file","attribute_value_mlt":[{"accessrole":"open_access","filename":"DP09-06.pdf","filesize":[{"value":"237.1 kB"}],"format":"application/pdf","licensetype":"license_note","mimetype":"application/pdf","url":{"label":"DP09-06.pdf","url":"https://grips.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/1006/files/DP09-06.pdf"},"version_id":"aa2be798-a0bd-4119-b8f8-245df0572544"}]},"item_keyword":{"attribute_name":"キーワード","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_subject":"stochastic population forecasts","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"Japan","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"Lee-Carter method","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"}]},"item_language":{"attribute_name":"言語","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_language":"eng"}]},"item_resource_type":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"resourcetype":"technical report"}]},"item_title":"A STOCHASTIC FORECAST MODEL FOR JAPAN'S POPULATION","item_titles":{"attribute_name":"タイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"A STOCHASTIC FORECAST MODEL FOR JAPAN'S POPULATION","subitem_title_language":"en"}]},"item_type_id":"12","owner":"16","path":["19"],"pubdate":{"attribute_name":"PubDate","attribute_value":"2009-05-01"},"publish_date":"2009-05-01","publish_status":"0","recid":"1006","relation_version_is_last":true,"title":["A STOCHASTIC FORECAST MODEL FOR JAPAN'S POPULATION"],"weko_creator_id":"16","weko_shared_id":-1},"updated":"2023-11-20T08:55:11.267615+00:00"}