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Impact of Border Barriers, Returning Migrants, and Trade Diversion in Brexit: Firm Exit and Loss of Variety
https://doi.org/10.24545/00001562
https://doi.org/10.24545/00001562ed67ae39-f7d6-4bac-b601-65d2060f1581
| 名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
|---|---|---|
DP17-04(rev.) (919.8 kB)
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| Item type | ディスカッションペーパー / Discussion Paper(1) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 公開日 | 2017-06-21 | |||||||
| タイトル | ||||||||
| タイトル | Impact of Border Barriers, Returning Migrants, and Trade Diversion in Brexit: Firm Exit and Loss of Variety | |||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||
| 言語 | ||||||||
| 言語 | eng | |||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||
| 主題 | Brexit | |||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||
| 主題 | Computable General Equilibrium Analysis | |||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||
| 主題 | Firm Heterogeneity | |||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||
| 主題 | Nontariff Barriers | |||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||
| 主題 | Immigration | |||||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||||
| 資源タイプ | technical report | |||||||
| ID登録 | ||||||||
| ID登録 (DOI) | 10.24545/00001562 | |||||||
| ID登録タイプ | JaLC | |||||||
| 著者 |
HOSOE, Nobuhiro
× HOSOE, Nobuhiro
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| 著者別名 | ||||||||
| 識別子Scheme | WEKO | |||||||
| 識別子 | 8471 | |||||||
| 姓名 | 細江, 宣裕 | |||||||
| 言語 | ja | |||||||
| 著者所属 | ||||||||
| 値 | 政策研究大学院大学 / National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies | |||||||
| 抄録 | ||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||||
| 内容記述 | We investigate the impact of Brexit (the UK’s planned withdrawal from the European Union) using computable general equilibrium models featuring conventional constant returns-to-scale (CRS) and increasing returns-to-scale (IRS) technology and firm heterogeneity, à la Melitz. We show that the imposition of the tariff and nontariff barriers associated with Brexit triggers the significant contraction of bilateral trade between the UK and the remaining 27 members of the European Union (EU27), exacerbated by firm exit from export markets. Given the imposition of these trade barriers, budget savings, migrants returning to the EU27 from the UK, and intra-EU27 integration and free trade agreements with the US and Japan, the IRS model predicts a total export loss of 5.1–5.8% of UK GDP and a total welfare loss of 1.1–1.5%. This is 60% greater than the CRS model predictions. However, the impact on output would vary between industries, whereby the UK chemical and automobile industries would contract, but its food, business services, and information and communication technology industries would expand. In contrast, the EU27 would gain substantially from other integration programs, but lose very little from the stronger UK–EU27 border barriers. This suggests that the EU27 should have little interest in negotiations aimed at avoiding a “hard Brexit” (the surrendering by the UK of full access to the single market) and that it would be more productive for it to focus on integration programs with trade partners other than the UK. | |||||||
| 内容記述 | ||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||||
| 内容記述 | JEL Classification Codes: F13, F17, C63, J61 | |||||||
| 内容記述 | ||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||||
| 内容記述 | This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant (No. 16K03613). | |||||||
| 発行年 | ||||||||
| 値 | 2017-06 | |||||||
| 書誌情報 |
en : GRIPS Discussion Papers Report No. DP17-04, 発行日 2017-06-21 |
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| 出版者 | ||||||||
| 出版者 | GRIPS Policy Research Center | |||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||
| 関連サイト | ||||||||
| 関連タイプ | isIdenticalTo | |||||||
| 識別子タイプ | URI | |||||||
| 関連識別子 | https://ideas.repec.org/p/ngi/dpaper/17-04.html | |||||||
| 関連名称 | https://ideas.repec.org/p/ngi/dpaper/17-04.html | |||||||
| 著者情報 | ||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||||
| 内容記述 | https://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/hosoe_nobuhiro/ | |||||||
| 著者版フラグ | ||||||||
| 出版タイプ | AM | |||||||
| 出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa | |||||||
